April 25, 2012, 10:01 AM — If current trends hold, then sometime late this summer, Microsoft’s Internet Information Services will fall to the number three web server position in global domains, behind two open source web server platforms: Apache and nginx.
This conclusion is one that I drew based on the latest Netcraft Web Server Survey numbers, which show, once again, a slight increase in the market share for nginx and a similar decrease for Microsoft IIS share numbers from March 2012 to April 2012.
A quick scan of the last few month’s surveys seemed to indicate similar occurrences, so I became curious to see how this was actually playing out. I fired up the ol’ spreadsheet application and entered the last 12 months’ worth of data from Netcraft’s market share for top servers across all domains and discovered some interesting numbers.
First, after projecting forward the linear trend lines for IIS and nginx a few months, I confirmed my hunch: nginx will pass IIS in mid-August 2012 if these market share numbers continue to stay true to their current pattern.